Cost pressure is building upstream while consumers are starting to buy less and pay more. The April 2026 PCE reads as pressure loading while the consumer begins to fade: the PPI gap is rising (27.8, well above its 15.6 long-run average) and real demand growth has slipped below inflation (a −1.67pp spread). It's the same shape that preceded the 2022 inflation peak, at a gentler pace. Import prices back near their 2022 high and the savings rate near its 2022 trough. More here
Kevin Warsh at Senate Hearing (1:12:47): "We take out all of the tail-risks, all of the one-off items, and we ask ourselves whether the generalized change in prices is having second-order effects on the economy.”
Jerome Powell at Harvard (46:46): "You know about fat tails right? It's not a normal distribution. The tails are fat and however fat you think they are they're fatter than that."
Here is snapshot of Federal Reserve February 1975 GreenBook. The 1st book to include the measure of inflation excluding food and energy.
The April 2026 jobs report reads as a frozen-but-not-falling labor market: payrolls added 115K and unemployment held at 4.3%, but the hiring rate has dropped to 3.5%, near a decade low, while the job-openings-to-unemployed ratio has cooled to 0.95, below its 1.13 long-run average. People with jobs are holding on, prime-age employment is near a 25-year high at 80.7% but pay has stopped beating inflation (a −0.2pp real-wage spread). More here
Computer & Electronic Product Manufacturing employed about 1.02 million people in 2016 (0.71% of total nonfarm payrolls) and about 990,000 in 2026 (0.62%, -3.1% from 2016), against total U.S. nonfarm payrolls that grew from 144 million to 159 million (+10.4%) over the same period. Real output for the same industry rose from $238 billion in 2016 to a peak of $300 billion in 2021 (+26.1%), then declined each year through 2024, ending at $287 billion (-4.3% from peak, +20.6% from 2016). Charts here.
21st Century ROAD to Housing Act (H.R. 6644) interactive map. House agreed to Senate amendment with amendment 396-13 on May 20, 2026 (H. Res. 1299). Awaits Senate action. The bill's operative provisions land across manufactured housing, site-built housing and banking and other. More here
34 U.S. regional banks from Q1 2020 through Q1 2026. Chart 1 shows what the banks lend and what funds those loans. Chart 2 shows what they earn, what they're carrying in investment losses, how their credit is performing. Where the banks are now, in five numbers + more here.
BANKING REFORM introduced granular LTV tables for traditional lending while treating $1.4T in NDFI (mortgage intermediaries, private equity funds, consumer & business credit) as one?
Excluding non-depository financial institutions (NDFI), when compared to large banks, small banks have lent more in loans and leases in bank credit over the last 10 years by ~$1 trillion. Large banks have lent ~$849 billion more over that same time period to NDFIs. More here.
Chart 1 = State Street KRE SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF 5-year chart with 5-day standard deviation price bands and event-driven price levels. Chart 2 = 34 regional bank Q1 2020 to Q1 2026 dashboard updated through Q1 2026 and now optimized for mobile. More here.
The last KKR 40-APP amendment included two funds who gated investor redemptions, K-FIT and K-ABF. The newest amendment, filed April 27, 2026, adds Muskoka JV LLC. Hopefully not the same Muskoka that's flooding right now. More here.
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) ROTCE + P/TBV + earnings call commentary + productivity as measured by real assets per employee. Details here.
shout out Ms. C. for talking about compound interest first day of pre-calc. made frame-by-frame, before AI. Both Sophie and Harold reach a million dollars on $15 a day, but they take very different paths. Sophie saves $15 daily for 10 years, then stops contributing entirely. Harold waits 10 years, then saves $15 daily for the next 30 years. Even though Harold contributes three times as much in total, Sophie's earlier start means compound interest works longer in her favor, and she comes out ahead. The 1-minute frame-by-frame animation shows the ending balances. Audio Video here.
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) Q1 2020 to Q1 2026 fundamental chart with earnings call excerpts, earnings call audio excerpt, and macro-event-driven moving average price regime charts. Latest Close (4/24/26) ($16.55): Above... Full HBAN details
Did 2020 or 2022 kill the 60/40?* Bond liquidity within bond funds may be normalizing sequence of returns risk for retirees.
Jerome Powell 3/30 at Harvard: "you know about fat tails? However, fat you think they are, they're fatter than that."
"The 60-40 portfolio is suffering its worst month since 2022". Scott Wapner, 3/30/26 CNBC Halftime report.
Take a look at Fidelity, JP Morgan, American Funds, Vanguard, Blackrock, T. Rowe Price target date retirement funds YTD (3/27/26) and 2022. More here.
Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) Q1 2026 earnings, including Q1 2020 to Q1 2026 fundamental chart with earnings call excerpts, earnings call audio excerpt, and macro-event-driven moving average price regime charts. Audio includes discussion about $152.5 million in charge-offs across two loans... Full WAL details
The Feed. A reader for the open web. Paste any URL, blog, news site, RSS feed, Substack; and it pulls the latest posts. No account, no algorithm, no platform. Your follow list lives in your browser; nothing leaves your machine except the requests that fetch the feeds you follow.
Click anything that catches your eye. Editing is turned off in the demo, but the article links work. (feed snapshot as of 5/2/26)
5/7/26 Tesla (TSLA) update: Tesla China posted record April NEV wholesale figures (best April on record) according to the China Passenger Car Association + the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration announced that later release 2026 Tesla Model Y is the first Vehicle to Pass NHTSA's New 'Advanced Driver Assistance System' Tests. More here.
