March 2026 PCE through different windows.
Chart 1: Gasoline accounted for 42% of March's spending increase. (81.3 ÷ 195.4 = 0.416 --> 42%)
Chart 2: Gasoline is about 2.3% of total PCE
Chart 3: 3-month, 6-month and 12-month price change, annualized.
Huntington Bancshares (HBAN) Q1 2020 to Q1 2026 fundamental chart with earnings call excerpts, earnings call audio excerpt, and macro-event-driven moving average price regime charts.
Latest Close (4/24/26) ($16.55): Above... Full HBAN details
Western Alliance Bancorporation (WAL) Q1 2026 earnings, including Q1 2020 to Q1 2026 fundamental chart with earnings call excerpts, earnings call audio excerpt, and macro-event-driven moving average price regime charts. Audio includes discussion about $152.5 million in charge-offs across two loans... Full WAL details
Zions Bancorporation (ZION) productivity as measured by real assets per employee.
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Harris Simmons, CEO, Q1 2026 earnings call: "People are looking for savings through technology. I came across just our headcount back in 2008. Now, that was 18 years ago. There's nothing magic about the year except that our headcount is down 20%. Back then, we were about a $54 billion company. You have to inflation-adjust that. But even with that, it's about a 25% improvement in productivity per $1 of real assets. AI is becoming a part of that. My view is AI, it's a new shiny object, but a lot of different technologies have led to improvement in productivity over the years. I think this has the promise of accelerating it somewhat." More ZION details.
4/22/26 Tesla (TSLA) update
4/22/26: Earnings announcement today. Looking like battleground will be between $366.35 and $408.73.
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$408.73 = avg low: safety probe to pre-delivery report (12/26/25 to 4/1/26)
$366.35 = avg high: post-election to pre-safety probe (11/6/24 to 12/24/25)
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Jeremy Grantham with Wilfred Frost on April 19, 2026 The Master Investor podcast - Lessons from 60 Legendary Years of Investing: "And I remember when the market efficiency guys were saying, there is no information in pricing alone."
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Jeffrey Hirsch with Steve Eisman on April 20, 2026 The Real Eisman Playbook podcast - Market Patterns Work: "So it's focusing on repetitive human behavior. As humans, we are creatures of habit."​
March 2026 PCE inflation just printed at 3.5%, ticking up from the high 2s where it had been hovering. Compare the two charts ten days apart. On April 20, the blue gap between All Commodities PPI and Final Demand PPI was already elevated and rising while green PCE inflation sat flat. On April 30, the March PCE release dropped and the green line moved up to close the visible distance.
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The lines have moved together for a decade, both rising into the 2022 peak, both falling through 2023, both flat in 2024 to 2025, both ticking up now. It's both sides of the K facing the same pressure. Producers feel it in the spread between input and output prices. Consumers feel it at the register. Same pressure, two views of it.
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(NSA PPI data, not a formal forecast)
State Street KRE SPDR S&P Regional Baking ETF event-driven price levels. 2-year daily, 5-day, and 30-day standard deviation price band charts, trailing 252 days.
July 11, 2024: Soft CPI report (3rd in-a-row). Read more.
Bailey: “We are doing something important… helping a man get his own roof and walls.”
Potter: “You're worth more dead than alive.”
Banking Reform in the US
BANKING REFORM introduced granular LTV tables for traditional lending while treating $1.2T in NDFI (mortgage intermediaries, private equity funds, consumer & business credit) as one?
Governor Cook at 3/19/26 Fed Banking Reform meeting (56:31 to 57:06): "Finally, I am reserving judgement as to whether the down calibrations that are contributing to the material decline in capital requirements are actually making capital requirements more risk sensitive. Granular requirements are not necessarily equivalent to risk-sensitive requirements. Especially for exposures where our visibility may be quite limited. Better data and sightlines into banks exposures to certain non-bank intermediaries for example would give me greater comfort in assessing the proposed changes and the treatment of those exposures."
Ask and you shall receive Lisa.
Excluding non-depository financial institutions (NDFI), when compared to large banks, small banks have lent more in loans and leases in bank credit over the last 10 years by ~$1 trillion. Large banks have lent ~$849 billion more over that same time period to NDFIs.
What's the over/under on better underwriting for small banks? Does continued NDFI funding allow extend and pretend to continue?
Barr dissented to proposed changes.
21st Century ROAD to Housing Act. click on items for more detail, explore different views. illustrative, not exhaustive.
think section 205 has some teeth? Cities that build more housing get a bigger slice of federal community development dollars; cities that don't get docked 10%. That's a stick right?
initial read on §901 is that it explicitly exempts build-to-rent. Investors can still buy newly constructed SF homes to rent. Catch: 7-year disposal requirement — though REITs may be exempt from that if disposal triggers prohibited transaction tax.
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Housing + Banking: Senate amendment bans Fed Central Bank Digital Currency (sunsets 2030). House version discussed community banks.
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map is but one framework for looking at impact of Senate bill. still has to go back to House. None of this means any entity is a good steward of capital and/or has circumstances favorable to success. Do your homework. I've stopped homework here given potential for everything to change. Would like to confirm ownerships.
Did 2020 or 2022 kill the 60/40?* Bond liquidity within bond funds may be normalizing sequence of returns risk for retirees.
Jerome Powell 3/30 at Harvard: "you know about fat tails? However, fat you think they are, they're fatter than that."
"The 60-40 portfolio is suffering its worst month since 2022". Scott Wapner, 3/30/26 CNBC Halftime report.
Take a look at Fidelity, JP Morgan, American Funds, Vanguard, Blackrock, T. Rowe Price target date retirement funds YTD (3/27/26) and 2022. More here.
Why do two KKR funds, K-FIT with $1.54 billion in shareholder equity and K-ABF, both currently gating investor redemptions, need permission to co-invest?
private equity/credit + interval fund = alternative = 401(k) + retail + liquidity? Read more
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shout out Ms. C. for talking about compound interest first day of pre-calc. made frame-by-frame, before AI.